Could Puerto Rico Remarks Cost Donald Trump the Election?
Donald Trump found himself upstaged by his supporting act for all the wrong reasons at New York's Madison Square Garden on Sunday night, where remarks by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe about Puerto Rico sparked a firestorm of criticism and dominated news headlines.
Hinchcliffe's joke early in the night referring to Puerto Rico as a "floating island of garbage" has received bipartisan backlash, with some Republicans saying they were "disgusted" by the remarks.
Danielle Alvarez, Trump's campaign senior adviser, said in a statement: "This joke does not reflect the views of President Trump or the campaign." Newsweek has contacted Trump's campaign team via email and Hinchcliffe via social media for further comment.
In response, some of the most famous Puerto Ricans, from rapper Bad Bunny to singer and actor Ricky Martin, have publicly expressed their support for Kamala Harris in response to their tens of millions of followers on social media.
Trump's rally in Madison Square Garden could be this year's October Surprise—a term used for decades to describe an event that could change the outcome of a presidential election.
Eight years ago, on October 28, 2016, FBI Director James Comey reopened an investigation into Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server during her time as secretary of state. The move, 11 days out from the election, has since been blamed for costing Clinton that year's race, including by the Democrat herself.
There are around 5.8 million people of Puerto Rican origin living in the U.S., including thousands in the battleground states that will decide the election on November 5. Are Hinchcliffe's remarks about Puerto Rico a late October Surprise that just derailed Donald Trump's campaign in the final week before the election?
Puerto Rico Remarks Could Decide Battleground States
Mark Shanahan, associate professor of political engagement at the U.K.'s University of Surrey, told Newsweek: "The Hinchcliffe 'joke' may be the campaign line that comes back to hurt Trump most in the coming week.
"If Hinchcliffe has caused enough offense to draw voters away from Trump, it could be a joke that ends his career and Trump's hopes of a return to the White House," said Shanahan.
"A week before the election, the last thing either side should be doing is offering up own goals to the opposition," Shanahan added. "The Puerto Rico line last night did not even play well in the room, and it's no surprise it has been seized on both by liberal commentators and by Hispanic news outlets."
Hinchcliffe's remarks are bound infuriate the millions of Puerto Ricans living across the U.S., who are likely to view the comments as disparaging Puerto Rican culture and autonomy and being part of a pattern of insensitivity or prejudice.
They could prove pivotal in various swing states where only a few thousand votes decided the election last time by potentially impacting Puerto Rican voter turnout and swaying undecided voters.
This could prove crucial in the battleground states that will decide the election. For example, there are 472,213 Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania, according to 2021 census data. Joe Biden won Pennsylvania in the 2020 election by 80,555 votes.
There are at least 100,000 Puerto Ricans estimated to be living in the swing states of Georgia and North Carolina, and around 60,000 in Arizona and Wisconsin, who could have an oversized influence on who wins the 2024 election overall.
Shanahan said the joke could also impact Trump and the GOP in Florida, the state with the largest population of Puerto Ricans in the United States at around 1.1 million.
"The Democrats still believe they can flip Rick Scott's Florida Senate seat. That may be crucial in keeping the Senate in Democrat hands. The very significant Puerto Rican vote in the Sunshine State may prove crucial here if the diaspora rallies behind Scott's opponent," Shanahan said.
Michael Binder, a professor of political science at the University of North Florida, downplayed suggestions Hinchcliffe's joke could harm Trump in the upcoming election.
"I'd have to believe this is just one of the daily misfires from Trumpland that doesn't really impact the race," Binder told Newsweek.
"Aside from the fact that nothing really moves his supporters, Puerto Ricans are one of the Hispanic groups most supportive of Kamala Harris anyway. Additionally, so many people have already cast ballots, both here in Florida and nationally, that any impact is dramatically reduced."
Kamala Harris' Campaign Seizes Opportunity Over Puerto Rico Remarks
Harris' running mate, Tim Walz, was one of those who said Hinchcliffe's joke about Puerto Rico could have a knock-on effect in the battleground states.
During a livestream with New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Sunday, Walz said there are "hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans across battleground states that need to send them a message."
Harris' clearest path to victory in November would be to win the three blue wall battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, barring any shock results elsewhere. Trump's most efficient path to 270 Electoral College votes would be to win Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Polls suggest that Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck in every swing state with just over a week until the election, meaning just a few thousand votes away from the Puerto Rican population could prove vital.
Polling and forecasters suggest Trump is on course to win Florida for the third time in November. The former president's polling average lead over Harris in Florida is 6 points, according to forecasting website 538.
However, Democrats believe The Sunshine State could be in play for them in both general and statewide races next week.
Senator Rick Scott, who is up for reelection in November, was among the Florida Republican figures who spoke out against Hinchcliffe's remarks.
"This joke bombed for a reason. It's not funny and it's not true," Scott posted on X, formerly Twitter. "Puerto Ricans are amazing people and amazing Americans! I've been to the island many times. It's a beautiful place. Everyone should visit! I will always do whatever I can to help any Puerto Rican in Florida or on the island."
The backlash to Hinchcliffe's joke is unlikely to make any real difference to Trump's chances of victory in New York, where roughly 1 million Puerto Ricans live. The state is one of the biggest Democratic strongholds, having not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984.
Harris has an average polling lead over Trump in New York of nearly 15 points, according to 538.
The forecast model from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill gives Harris a 99 percent chance of winning New York on November 5.
About the writer
Ewan Palmer is a Newsweek News Reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is reporting on US politics, domestic policy ... read more
